The Ballon d’Or 2025 was billed as one of the most open races in recent memory. For GoWagr traders however, the writing was basically on the wall: traders put their chips on Ousmane Dembélé from day one and never really looked back till his coronation under Paris’ dimmed lights.
Yamal put up a solid case to win the Ballon d’Or, but it was always Dembélé’s to lose — and in 2025, the man who was dubbed “better than Mbappé on his day” finally cashed in all that wasted potential with football’s biggest prize.
But let’s rewind, because the market told the story before the announcement on Monday night.
The Market Called It Early…
When the men’s Ballon d’Or market opened on GoWagr in July, Dembélé was instantly the frontrunner, with 75% of the market backing him to lift football’s most prestigious individual trophy. Although 17% of the market kept faith in Lamine Yamal and 8% others had the opinion that someone else was more deserving, one thing was certain — Dembélé was the clear favourite for this one.
By the evening of September 22 (the awards night itself); Yamal odds began to surge, fuelled by wild X rumours (“Yamal already won!”) and the narrative around PSG’s fixture with Marseille clashing with the start of the main gala. But even rumors of Yamal’s win peddled by some of the most dedicated football blogs, could not sway the market enough as Dembélé’s odds to win never dropped below 63%.
In the end, that steady confidence paid off. This was Dembélé’s award, and it came home. Traders who backed Dembélé from day one cashed out big, many walking away with $500 to $2,000 payouts for their unwavering faith in the Frenchman.
Zero to Hero..
Dembélé’s whole career has been a pendulum between genius and chaos. Injuries, late training sessions, fast food habits — you know the stories. He was dubbed Neymar’s “replacement” twice in his career; first at Barça, a transfer many believe came too soon and had broken him. A once highly regarded talent was fast joining the list of could-haves and should-haves, and it seemed as though he would never go on to fulfill his potential.
However, it was Dembélé’s second ‘Neymar replacement’ stint (this time at PSG) where his fortunes changed. The capital club gave him the stage, and coach Luis Enrique gave him the license with Mbappé off to Madrid.
The result? 35 goals, 14 assists, and a treble (Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Champions League). By spring 2025, he wasn’t just PSG’s main man — he was Europe’s most in-form forward.
So when he broke down crying on stage in Paris, Golden Ball in hand, it was not just a performance. The ‘prodigal’ talent many had hoped would set the world ablaze with his gift had finally done it. Scores of people had backed him this year, and his immense potential since his early days at Rennes and Dortmund, is now fully realized.
The Markets Never Lie..
Yamal’s late surge showed how rumors can sway trader sentiment, but that’s the beauty of prediction markets—they’re not a popularity contest. Rumors may fly, but the market keeps moving in one direction: the truth.
And that’s a wrap on the 2025 Ballon d’Or. But the fun doesn’t have to stop there, plenty of sports markets are live on GoWagr right now.
Here are some of the hottest markets cooking at the moment:
- Will Nigeria Qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Will Ruben Amorim leave Man Utd before 2026?
- Will Arsenal go trophyless again this season?
So, what’s your next move?
👉 Jump into the live markets on GoWagr now.
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