The Africa Cup of Nations is back and running! 24 nations have flown out to Morocco for a chance to be named Africa’s undisputed No. 1. And of course, the Super Eagles of Nigeria will be right there in the mix, fighting alongside 23 others for continental supremacy.
But here’s the interesting part: the markets do not predict Nigeria to win it. Now, that might sound harsh for a football-mad nation where every tournament begins with the same sentence: “We can win it.” But sentiment isn’t strategy—and AFCON rarely rewards hope without structure.
So… why exactly are the odds leaning away from Nigeria this time? Well, a few reasons stand out, let’s unpack them.
1. The expanded format isn’t exactly anyone’s best friend
AFCON’s format changed at the last edition and while on paper, this gives everyone a longer runway. In reality, it means one off-night, one misread game, one injury or moment of bad luck and you’re out. For a team whose recent history includes too many “we should have won that” moments, this new format already does not look good.
2. Troost-Ekong’s absence leaves a tangible leadership gap
William Troost-Ekong wasn’t just Nigeria’s captain; he was an enigmatic, cold-blooded operator in big moments. Since making his Super Eagles debut in 2015, he’s racked up 80+ caps, becoming the natural leader at the back, and—crucially—evolving into one of the most reliable penalty takers in the squad.
His last AFCON run wasn’t just impressive — it was historic. He finished as Player of the Tournament, rewriting the record books with five goals from defence.
His retirement means Nigeria has lost tangible experience at the back; he will be missed!
3. An over reliance on Osimhen
Already the second-highest goalscorer in Super Eagles history, Victor Osimhen is, without question, one of Nigeria’s biggest exports in modern football. Without him, Nigeria’s attack often immediately looks blunt and the reason is simple:
There is no like-for-like cover for their beloved JagunJagun.
This means crucially, one injury, one suspension, or even one off-day from VO9 can completely change the complexion of Nigeria’s attack. And at this AFCON, where games come every few days and physicality is high, that’s a major, major risk.
4. The contenders are just… Stronger?
However, the biggest hurdle might not be Nigeria’s flaws—it might be everyone else’s strengths. Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, South Africa etc. aren’t teams you simply “hope” to beat. You outplay them, or you don’t. And the market odds reflect exactly that.
And Nigeria’s current probability of doing that (and winning the tournament)? Quite low. Which means the Super Eagles are in a rare space where expectations are low, but potential upside is high. Buying the dip could offer you so much value, especially if Nigeria does go on a run 250 million Nigerians will not forget.
Now, About That Asterisk*
This piece is a commentary on current expectations, current squad realities, and current market behaviour—not a definitive prophecy about what will happen.
Football is football. AFCON is AFCON. And Nigeria is Nigeria.
This combination has shocked the continent before—and it can do so again.
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